NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6045c1521e3ed66af3c7095e187c712d79867582d7fa5c21122843e049b31a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 3c | 1,831$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 61c | 739.43$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.43 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 503.2$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.25 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf3…ce52backed Over | 50c | 501.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +309.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…db0bbacked Under | 5c | 417.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 369.06$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 243.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 228$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 47c | 172.39$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 62c | 138.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 39c | 86.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 42c | 81.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Under | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.8wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 58c | 64.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Over | 59c | 50.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 60c | 48.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Over | 70c | 40.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 41c | 32.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…657ebacked Under | 57c | 23.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. OilersGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.