Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61ed4b516b0df1239feaf04a4c9c6037e486cc60a9cdaaeda5ec356905daa7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 35c | 2,751$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.85 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 76c | 1,313$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,184$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.11 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 673.54$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.36 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 71c | 194.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 31c | 154.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Over | 56c | 56.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…fee8backed Under | 34c | 43.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…4216backed Under | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…cab7backed Over | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 71c | 26.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Over | 78c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Paris FC vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Paris FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris FC (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.