Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois vs. Michigan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61f7438c3b6764a6bf673e8e09b59d44819279d67319a0029b58f19517e4c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked Illinois | 44c | 21,432$9,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,925.79 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Michigan | 55c | 11,143$6,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,167.12 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Michigan | 56c | 9,132$5,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,107.52 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Michigan | 60c | 653.56$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan | 57c | 384$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.88 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Michigan | 57c | 357$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Michigan | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Michigan | 58c | 203.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Michigan | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Michigan | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3c…5093backed Michigan | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Illinois | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Michigan | 56c | 50.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Illinois | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Michigan | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…e7d9backed Illinois | 23c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Illinois | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2be…b5f1backed Illinois | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Michigan | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a52…b173backed Michigan | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x965c…a955backed Illinois | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Illinois | 48c | 37.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Michigan | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…4a53backed Illinois | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…7751backed Illinois | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…9b92backed Michigan | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…1573backed Illinois | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…407fbacked Michigan | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…979abacked Michigan | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8729…6098backed Michigan | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…df3dbacked Michigan | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…491abacked Michigan | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…d596backed Michigan | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…437abacked Michigan | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…7d55backed Michigan | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…2c06backed Michigan | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…8c5cbacked Michigan | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1376…5ddbbacked Michigan | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.