Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd63857e889023bcba8bd01fb6ccf437cecdbc4c37177155d3e532fa63b97aaa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,931$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.77 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 39c | 1,800$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.83 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 33c | 1,220$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.03 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 53c | 470.86$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Under | 53c | 396.89$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.89 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 25c | 378.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 47c | 300.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 57c | 279$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 49c | 205.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 199.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 68c | 146.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 46c | 144$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed Under | 75c | 127.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 75c | 127.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Under | 75c | 107.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 71c | 105.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 47c | 90.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 63c | 67.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 47c | 61.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Over | 42c | 60.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 60c | 44.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 693 | 52.2%362 W · 331 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 48c | 34.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 67c | 31.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 26.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…892fbacked Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff2…38edbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…a9d1backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…dcc2backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb215…d902backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cc…e8bdbacked Over | 47c | 24.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…e651backed Over | 48c | 24.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…d36dbacked Over | 47c | 24.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a40…f3d7backed Over | 47c | 24.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4f…fc0ebacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…d608backed Over | 47c | 23.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e0…38cbbacked Over | 47c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…fdbfbacked Over | 47c | 23.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…38b3backed Over | 47c | 23.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b67…dd18backed Over | 47c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…c0dabacked Over | 47c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…d2efbacked Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d17…8f80backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d2…be6dbacked Over | 47c | 22.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…7da8backed Over | 47c | 22.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…e225backed Over | 47c | 22.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…3821backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…2d84backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc637…e858backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…ecf0backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…755dbacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…592ebacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…2e25backed Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b6…fcd0backed Over | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdb…67d5backed Over | 48c | 21.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a1…0ee1backed Over | 48c | 21.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…983abacked Under | 52c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…f9febacked Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…7b4cbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…3332backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.