Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6354774c5df0928f3413838997b424fbc045cb835126014d30dd1320a96039db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Under | 34c | 1,818$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over | 41c | 1,688$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,468$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.64 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 28c | 904.53$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.51 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 75c | 399.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 73c | 273.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Under | 18c | 250$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 200.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 25c | 198.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Over | 27c | 193.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 22c | 164.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Over | 78c | 111.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 46c | 108.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 74c | 97.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 71c | 87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 73c | 83.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 73c | 83.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Under | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under | 61c | 67.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 60.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 762 | 55.9%426 W · 336 L | +38.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked Under | 48c | 57.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 58c | 48.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 40c | 47.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 36c | 44.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked Over | 72c | 43.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 57c | 41.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 63c | 38.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 66c | 35.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…c7eebacked Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 64c | 32.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Under | 58c | 31.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb017…9f48backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 50c | 26.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…3e64backed Under | 57c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Under | 55c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…f78dbacked Under | 65c | 24.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 24.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 74c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 63c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 72c | 19.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…a7fdbacked Over | 72c | 17.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 70c | 15.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 73c | 13.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.