Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6579b3e839faef66ba7a9bbcd1d645a9e90349f2935369dc624e25ff0884887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 16c | 544.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 417.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 16c | 352.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 254.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 247.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 209.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 199.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 9c | 196.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 164.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 152.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 20c | 139.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce63…3ebdbacked Yes | 21c | 123.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 20c | 114.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 112.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 110.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 101.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 92.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 19c | 87.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 73.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 57.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 54.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Yes | 22c | 48.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 24c | 47.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 43.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 40.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 77c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 80c | 32.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 79c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 80c | 18.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 78c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 92°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.