TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,215 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6400…331abacked Yes35c933.55$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.9242469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes45c534.46$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.48151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes20c494.59$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.0756131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabef…dbc9backed No5c462.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c445.13$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3906004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes56c372.5$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.624,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes78c318.85$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.48239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No8c289.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0358422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes18c271.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c224.66$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.484,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes52c224.16$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.4114025.7%36 W · 104 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No26c198.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9813453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c194.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.481,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes27c166.8$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.166936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes20c152$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.844129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6517…573fbacked No75c142.24$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.954452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes27c122.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.378417.9%15 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No51c118.51$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.942,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes23c105$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes26c82.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.72,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed Yes23c77.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8414944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes80c69.16$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No64c62.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed Yes40c60.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5721142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes29c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.42419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd384…130ebacked Yes25c59.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.991827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes75c57.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3565749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes36c57.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9140525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…e1b0backed Yes79c56.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.921540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes25c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2529281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c53$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes43c52.46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.715,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes30c49.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.171679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7431…be26backed Yes28c49.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.371040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed Yes21c48.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3817555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…10fabacked Yes28c47.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c47.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes29c46.69$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.192040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…9431backed Yes22c46.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+360.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5d…5b70backed Yes65c46.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168632.6%28 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40e…43c2backed Yes28c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+69.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes33c44.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f5…0a7ebacked Yes29c43.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.072638.5%10 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes79c43.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.37758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes36c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.528531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No61c41.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1323349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes54c41.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8637644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No73c41.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b1…3190backed No72c39.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c38.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.418,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x59ee…b6aabacked No75c32.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.581435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x94a6…0cd5backed No72c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No60c29.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.972,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes61c28.83$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed No38c28.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes37c28.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7519449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No56c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8246…1a44backed No74c26.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No74c25.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.111151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59ec…3dd8backed No72c24.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-63%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No73c23.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.054456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No65c23.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0924768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e82…dfe5backed Yes61c23.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x512c…17d5backed No74c22.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes73c22.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.031,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No74c21.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8176371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c21.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No68c19.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.257972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c2c…0053backed Yes77c18.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.291376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No73c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed No72c17.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7825447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed No73c17.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.818242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed No74c17.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8113943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca75…d923backed No75c17.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.828436.9%31 W · 53 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf3a9…3003backed No74c16.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.922969%20 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No67c15.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8a62…ace3backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54961.2%30 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked No71c14.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.024955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.