Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Louisa Chirico vs Yue Yuan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd65b1859cf86fc7c01f44af27a8597c6f6b38fbce0ca20a7083a658b4758037d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuanof Chirico, Yuan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Chirico | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yuan | 63c | 1,947$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.37 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Chirico | 42c | 711.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Chirico | 33c | 511.45$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yuan | 69c | 411.75$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed Chirico | 18c | 331.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 44.1%165 W · 209 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Yuan | 62c | 330.48$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.57 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yuan | 51c | 312.29$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Chirico | 30c | 233.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Chirico | 38c | 215$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yuan | 74c | 194.12$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Chirico | 29c | 140.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c3…079fbacked Yuan | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 893 | 64.4%575 W · 318 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Yuan | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…62a3backed Yuan | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Chirico | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Chirico | 39c | 58.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yuan | 74c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Chirico | 28c | 46.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Yuan | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…8efdbacked Yuan | 76c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034c…76c0backed Yuan | 54c | 19.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Louisa Chirico vs Yue Yuanthis page
- Chirico vs. Yuan: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Chirico vs YuanChirico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.