Tennis · resolved market
Cary: Liam Broady vs Hayato Matsuoka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd664ae20e139bad74f7069ecc805b143ac4d5fee830d284665e12f71faad2e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liam Broadyof Liam Broady, Hayato Matsuoka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hayato Matsuoka | 6c | 20,882$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hayato Matsuoka | 1c | 2,582$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hayato Matsuoka | 25c | 599.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.91 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Liam Broady | 75c | 456.66$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hayato Matsuoka | 9c | 455.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…caa2backed Hayato Matsuoka | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Liam Broady | 73c | 370.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hayato Matsuoka | 5c | 291.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Hayato Matsuoka | 7c | 204$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…07a7backed Hayato Matsuoka | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hayato Matsuoka | 25c | 172.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…5166backed Liam Broady | 75c | 172.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5b…2a5abacked Hayato Matsuoka | 20c | 171.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hayato Matsuoka | 10c | 117.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb2…1bfcbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 9c | 107.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 280 | 55.4%155 W · 125 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Hayato Matsuoka | 11c | 106.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Liam Broady | 75c | 83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Hayato Matsuoka | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hayato Matsuoka | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Liam Broady | 74c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Liam Broady | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cary: Liam Broady vs Hayato Matsuokathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Broady vs MatsuokaBroady won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.