Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd678fa79d7020ab6a2f94664f9bc1055cf35407e21571d3236de28ee97b8a726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 602.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 265.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0105…ad53backed Yes | 15c | 202.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 190.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 176$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 144.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 142.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 142$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 10c | 116.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.67 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 21c | 110.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 14c | 98.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 21c | 88.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 87.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 38c | 86.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 49c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 17c | 80.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 63.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 32.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 50c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.