Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5acbc080065853011e6ba05036d040555140cd59bc8d343e215245195526b0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 467.52$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 457.17$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 349.74$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 255.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 242.95$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Yes | 27c | 223.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 28c | 218.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 54c | 216.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 48c | 209.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 201.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 29c | 178$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 164.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 150.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 62c | 146.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 142.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 51c | 142.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 54c | 142.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 141.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 44c | 133$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 132.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 46c | 128.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 27c | 112$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 44c | 85.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 79.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 73.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 49c | 73.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 24c | 71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 69.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 63.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 69c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 51c | 59.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 58.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 52c | 57.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 52c | 53.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 48.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked No | 49c | 41.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 34c | 37.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 52c | 36.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 34.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 32.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 48c | 30.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ab…6327backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 74c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.