Earnings · resolved market
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67c63a0b0fec10ad997cb6f083a5657589758d2a2a0769313e13e6d9de19e98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 64c | 6,055$3,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,161.24 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcac4…2e43backed Yes | 1c | 3,620$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 1,842$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.99 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…b632backed No | 10c | 1,592$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.51 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 891.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 5c | 821.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.58 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…af63backed Yes | 9c | 564.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 521.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.16 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 8c | 472.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.92 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 17c | 449$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.37 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 76c | 424$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 400$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.86 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4110…9750backed No | 6c | 394.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,476.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 349.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.48 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 7c | 302.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.41 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 231.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.32 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 8c | 221.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaf…8e75backed No | 7c | 187.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 51c | 146.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…1a3bbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 56c | 89.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.