Asian League · resolved market
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6aec9a6f8bafecf29f77a47b2c43a1b9615f9d2485d2d012137f37b8a2ee973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 41c | 4,120$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.2 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 858.64$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.83 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 44c | 512.22$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.82 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 28c | 324$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 52c | 299.57$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 274.33$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 43c | 233.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 57c | 210.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 80c | 184$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 25c | 174.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.8 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 72c | 171$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 135.85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 239 | 27.2%65 W · 174 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 70c | 80.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 28c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 76c | 42.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 72c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 41c | 31.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 48c | 28.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…4c28backed Over | 57c | 26.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Over | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 4.5this page
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.