Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b464a645eed6d27668a80dbfcd851ac668d864ee156a666de2d6a6855cd501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Ruud, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Musetti | 60c | 516.67$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Ruud | 43c | 470.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.56 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Ruud | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Musetti | 61c | 327.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Ruud | 42c | 319.59$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.75 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…060bbacked Musetti | 62c | 249.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Musetti | 60c | 248.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Ruud | 39c | 209.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Musetti | 57c | 191.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Musetti | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Ruud | 38c | 153.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Musetti | 61c | 145.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Musetti | 58c | 124.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0948…061cbacked Ruud | 42c | 119.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Musetti | 57c | 111.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Ruud | 46c | 107.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Ruud | 42c | 103.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Ruud | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Ruud | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…f5d0backed Musetti | 62c | 95.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Ruud | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Ruud | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Ruud | 43c | 70.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…62f1backed Musetti | 61c | 67.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Ruud | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Musetti | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Ruud | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Musetti | 53c | 34.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Musetti | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…d2a6backed Musetti | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Musetti | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 416 | 44.5%185 W · 231 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Ruud | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 313 | 66.8%209 W · 104 L | +27.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Ruud | 74c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Musetti (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Lorenzo Musetti vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Musetti vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Musetti vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs RuudRuud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.