Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c1028a7c9f7883dba48edbef43ef4f02f99307e93fb77e7faa015755348cdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 76c | 5,564$4,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.36 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 76c | 1,987$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.92 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 651.81$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.65 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…17dcbacked Yes | 29c | 345.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 71c | 337.1$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…8455backed Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 26c | 204.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 26c | 189.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 74c | 131.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 103.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…5d29backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 74c | 35.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 75c | 26.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d83bbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.