Fifa International · resolved market
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a64b60f47774b171ea074302dbccff1ea939737fa7eb3e662a2b34ac7de539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 2,173$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.77 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 56c | 1,739$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.19 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 46c | 984.15$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.43 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 57c | 918.88$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.76 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 55c | 851.36$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.25 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 54c | 585.15$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.98 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 76c | 433.69$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…e467backed Yes | 43c | 418.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 45c | 366.67$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 57c | 350$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…9012backed Yes | 43c | 348.64$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 56c | 187.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Yes | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 45c | 164.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…e61cbacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…6644backed Yes | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 56c | 90.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 41c | 84.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 45c | 67.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…45f9backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…e711backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…0370backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…ccdbbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4664…21b1backed Yes | 75c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 56c | 26.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Luxembourg vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw?No won
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.