Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7497a2dba5e89ad881932204d71b226a8a6433d5df548dbf8aee0ba611d1f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 279.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 247.63$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 25c | 157.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 149$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 115.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 12c | 89.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 86.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 86.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 79.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 75.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 67.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 65.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 37c | 64.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 26c | 60.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 73c | 57.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 26c | 50.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 50.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 49.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 60c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 38c | 31.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 77c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.