Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b9924bc41f6b4a4e13f704ba90b1d89270d6c31687c475e655f2e08580e4fe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 16c | 704$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.15 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 32c | 517.13$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.14 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 20c | 389.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.53 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 351.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 159.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…d3bebacked No | 79c | 149.67$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 147.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.57 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 19c | 141$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 8c | 131.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 16c | 105.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 22c | 103.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 15c | 89.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 74c | 80.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 17c | 64.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 60.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 19c | 58.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 21c | 52.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 49.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 52c | 47.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 33.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 53c | 30.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 29.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b8…733fbacked No | 50c | 29.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 25.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 52c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…3919backed Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 13.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.