Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75fa27e2e4c6ae411b01e3b808848c63d17b799befa8f434b9d74fccfe97832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 3c | 507.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 417.83$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 10c | 306.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 155.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 22c | 141.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 71c | 140.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…ccc1backed No | 76c | 132.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 26c | 105.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 89.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 71.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 62.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 21c | 52.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 76c | 52.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 52.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 40.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 34.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 33.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 33.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 75c | 32.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 24.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed No | 71c | 22.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 21.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 79c | 13.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.