Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5865bcc55adfb4f8ca43cf25e4dbbb40cb280721c9d701f5698001c0f6b49eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,019$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 72c | 597.12$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 405.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 74c | 270.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 55c | 227.86$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 165.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 54c | 163.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 58c | 152.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 47c | 129.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 41c | 128.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 115.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 37c | 114.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 103.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 50c | 98.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 66c | 81.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 50c | 77.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 40c | 77.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 74.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 73.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 42c | 70.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 72c | 68.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 59c | 66.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 28c | 65.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 62.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 55c | 61.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 57.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 73c | 54.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 26c | 52.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 50.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 58c | 49.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 34c | 49.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 54c | 46.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 39c | 44.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 23c | 44.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 39.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed No | 63c | 37.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 38c | 35.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 56c | 34.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 32c | 33.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 46c | 29.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 69c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 57c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 24.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 51c | 23.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…ad85backed No | 52c | 20.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…ce48backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 75c | 17.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.