Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7664814999e5ed5165d6ea19c5243428fa33c9d2a1b0be61002068b34290fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Team Falcons, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons | 60c | 2,518$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.88 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df5…b34abacked Tundra Esports | 40c | 2,502$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Tundra Esports | 52c | 2,145$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.04 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed Team Falcons | 54c | 981.48$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Falcons | 33c | 900$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked Team Falcons | 57c | 370$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 303$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 171.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…44bfbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Team Falcons | 60c | 47.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Tundra Esports | 26c | 40.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Tundra Esports | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Tundra Esports | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.