NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd786e00c3700849964b0c0eafdaa52d124c0612c51eed64d9954dd918c14f0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Red Wings, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0e8…2525backed Bruins | 70c | 671.83$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bruins | 68c | 595.88$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.64 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 28c | 569.93$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Red Wings | 32c | 437$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Red Wings | 26c | 421.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Red Wings | 32c | 220$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bruins | 67c | 198.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bruins | 68c | 197.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bruins | 68c | 162.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 32c | 162.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Bruins | 75c | 117.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Bruins | 76c | 105.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Red Wings | 30c | 76.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Red Wings | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Red Wings | 45c | 40.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Red Wings | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bruins | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…6ce0backed Red Wings | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f2…a4bebacked Bruins | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Bruins vs. Red WingsBruins won
- Bruins vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Bruins vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.