Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ceb67d5fd763c024e5ab16abc992cc4cc5757156927bca087fef2aef7898e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof AVULUS, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,090 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked VP.Prodigy | 48c | 1,488$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.36 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed VP.Prodigy | 48c | 934.57$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.18 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed AVULUS | 44c | 841.75$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.09 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed AVULUS | 7c | 803.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AVULUS | 52c | 628.48$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.48 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked AVULUS | 40c | 566.07$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.65 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 50c | 495$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.72 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked AVULUS | 56c | 361.81$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 277.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked VP.Prodigy | 54c | 261.73$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…d235backed AVULUS | 57c | 174.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed AVULUS | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked AVULUS | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed VP.Prodigy | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…af15backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 94.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed AVULUS | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…6d99backed AVULUS | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked AVULUS | 41c | 65.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed AVULUS | 52c | 61.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…d3f1backed AVULUS | 45c | 57.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed VP.Prodigy | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed AVULUS | 40c | 41.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3674…05a8backed AVULUS | 47c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked AVULUS | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked AVULUS | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 64c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.