South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d8d5a65895b385f1b5773df5e5df4dd47f48e2e11cdad98380071732b7bc87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 34c | 70,000$24,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,147.19 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 65c | 66,084$42,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,128.75 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 10c | 6,632$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.16 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 43c | 3,883$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.75 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 3,637$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed No | 22c | 1,600$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.17 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 45c | 699.89$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 22c | 692.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 49c | 594$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 52c | 435.45$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.79 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 50c | 284.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.03 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed No | 22c | 208$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 31c | 197.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 51c | 133.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked Yes | 63c | 126.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Yes | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Yes | 54c | 92.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +36%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 59c | 67.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3023backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1f…15d7backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…efa6backed No | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 56c | 31.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…b47bbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…f4d3backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed Yes | 65c | 28.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yes | 79c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2025-11-15?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2025-11-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.