Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd821cf50786ad08d7059c345ac2a033d3125f4da45181b044de4b1c12bfe2763
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 1c | 3,037$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…cb2abacked Yes | 5c | 1,623$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 66c | 298.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 293.18$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 239.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 179.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 157.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 50c | 126.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 37c | 124.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 33c | 112.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked No | 80c | 89.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 36c | 80.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 50c | 80.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 80c | 69.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 74c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 60c | 50.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 46.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 63c | 46.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…9db8backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1109…e3adbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 50c | 33.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 33c | 33.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 28.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 50c | 28.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 67c | 21.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 18.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.