Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd84d9896b62ab643c85c02879c0e440acb31f15bc1e3ba4eb81dcdb413e96537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 405.34$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 17c | 255.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…2e8abacked Yes | 72c | 206.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 193.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 78c | 151.2$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 65c | 129.9$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 115.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 114.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 53c | 112.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 38c | 107.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 107.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 95.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 39c | 90.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.03 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 34c | 85.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 85.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 62.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 33c | 51.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 71c | 51.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 35c | 50.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 47.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 63c | 47.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 68c | 47.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 80c | 45.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 29c | 42.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 41.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 40.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 76c | 35.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 34c | 35.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 56c | 35.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 32.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 32.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…bba7backed Yes | 76c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 30.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 63c | 30.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 28.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 20.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 74c | 19.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 19.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 66c | 17.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 67c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.