College Football · resolved market
Stanford vs. SMU Mustangs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd861e274ef1ae6bb12545cff2daf014b30772aa5c6c6de5faf8563524a5d38d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Stanford, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Stanford | 11c | 47,483$5,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,303.74 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8c…672ebacked Stanford | 11c | 9,323$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.53 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Stanford | 10c | 5,196$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.6 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Stanford | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Stanford | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Stanford | 10c | 2,655$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.49 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Stanford | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Stanford | 11c | 1,940$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…5340backed Stanford | 11c | 1,728$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…f133backed Stanford | 11c | 1,712$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Stanford | 12c | 1,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Stanford | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Stanford | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4a02backed Stanford | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Stanford | 11c | 509.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Stanford | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Stanford | 9c | 461.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Stanford | 9c | 399.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Stanford | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Stanford | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Stanford | 15c | 162.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Stanford | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Stanford | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 224 | 4%9 W · 215 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Stanford | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Stanford | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ef…2891backed Stanford | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed Stanford | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stanford vs. SMU Mustangsthis page
- O/U 55.5Under won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-18.5)SMU Mustangs won
- Spread: SMU Mustangs (-19.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.