Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b072e742d8da1cad3c609c43ca27077d89acdb711e637595e0d1e57acd7f0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,602$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 20c | 347.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 258.57$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 20c | 256.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 221.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 203.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 180.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 178.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 167.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…f169backed Yes | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 161.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 156.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 19c | 133.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 47c | 128.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 11c | 124.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 61c | 76.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fd…2c69backed Yes | 32c | 72.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 38c | 61.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 78c | 59.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 45c | 56.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 54.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 48.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 73c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 36.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 34.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 24.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 19.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.