Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c86b9b43a0ec534cc4741e5c18c93943c0f640ac948efeed8d681cfd7eb7cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 1c | 4,224$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 3c | 493.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 5c | 293.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 292.24$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 34c | 209.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 35c | 201.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 70c | 153.11$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 108.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 107.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 102.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 100.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 32c | 99.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 11c | 98.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…bf96backed Yes | 35c | 96.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 90.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 33c | 71.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 29c | 61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 53.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 39.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 31c | 39.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 29c | 34.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 73c | 34.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 33.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 76c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 68c | 32.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 27.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 67c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 79c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 68c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.