Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cc05f47cdc10937e1910a40df389a16e90210576fe3b53291950cdbab82a769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 459.95$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.41 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 359.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 287.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 244.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 199.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 196.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 171.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 26c | 170.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 168.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 135.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 19c | 133.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 116.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…c2b6backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 97.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 16c | 93.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 90.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 14c | 89.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 88.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 83.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 77.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…8fd1backed No | 66c | 75.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 77c | 66.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 61.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 58.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 57.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 23c | 50.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 50.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 34c | 47.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 38.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 72c | 37.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 31c | 36.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 32.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 25.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.