Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8e4f0021a11b9065ee21995ab9cceb7c75238c8e5e2c3218d6c524194c81091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 63c | 195.92$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…a066backed No | 63c | 195.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…b797backed No | 63c | 195.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…2b64backed No | 63c | 193.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked No | 63c | 190.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…aff8backed No | 63c | 189.92$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…b6f0backed No | 63c | 189.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e27…ee16backed No | 63c | 189.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…bae4backed No | 63c | 189.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…bee2backed No | 63c | 188.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…6c6fbacked No | 63c | 187.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0b…72e4backed No | 63c | 187.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe206…bdbdbacked No | 63c | 187.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ca…cbddbacked No | 63c | 186.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…e610backed No | 63c | 186.83$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…86f5backed No | 63c | 186.59$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…d649backed No | 63c | 186.49$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…3b30backed No | 63c | 186.43$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…13f3backed No | 63c | 186.35$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…2562backed No | 63c | 186.19$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0c…49ddbacked No | 63c | 186.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…8ae0backed No | 63c | 186.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…c19fbacked No | 63c | 185.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…e56bbacked No | 63c | 185.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…0b94backed No | 63c | 185.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…2462backed No | 63c | 185.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…e5babacked No | 63c | 184.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…206dbacked No | 63c | 184.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…61f7backed No | 63c | 184.6$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…c43cbacked No | 63c | 184.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…5846backed No | 63c | 184.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x428e…78d2backed No | 63c | 183.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…193dbacked No | 63c | 183.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c44…948dbacked No | 63c | 183.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4448…90dabacked No | 63c | 182.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…2bd0backed No | 63c | 182.34$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 63c | 182.25$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c3…0093backed No | 63c | 181.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fa…825bbacked No | 63c | 181.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…4666backed No | 63c | 181.49$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f4…8025backed No | 63c | 180.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…a20abacked No | 63c | 180.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…ed04backed No | 63c | 180.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…e082backed No | 63c | 180.01$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…4131backed No | 63c | 179.9$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…5bb8backed No | 63c | 179.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 63c | 179.46$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…6b0fbacked No | 63c | 179.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…c208backed No | 63c | 179.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129e…7710backed No | 63c | 179.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…78febacked No | 63c | 178.77$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…598ebacked No | 63c | 178.38$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dd…dcbcbacked No | 63c | 178.26$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…e7b8backed No | 63c | 178.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…5f71backed No | 63c | 177.98$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743b…ada6backed No | 63c | 175.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…b297backed No | 63c | 174.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…33c6backed No | 63c | 174.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…915abacked No | 63c | 171.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e3…4e41backed No | 63c | 170.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 9c | 108.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in April?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Amazon reach $224 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $244 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $260 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $276 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.