Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $276 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3241898ac23ff72c334df24fef496080c75e08f2654fa89d8420a474d77b5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,751$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.5 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 8c | 1,344$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 15c | 1,269$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 12c | 673.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed Yes | 55c | 369.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 69c | 185.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 11c | 174.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 79c | 129$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed Yes | 46c | 113.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…5d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3188…870bbacked No | 74c | 96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed No | 72c | 68.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…346ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…1db7backed Yes | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $276 in April?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in April?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Amazon reach $224 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $244 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $260 in April?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.