Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon reach $260 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474bb416330490e992f15009519c9cac2c436213402274eccb1b29fbc6499ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 23c | 3,303$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.95 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,129$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,189.49 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 56c | 1,045$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.49 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 48c | 757.85$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.83 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…5d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 642.91$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 44c | 330$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed No | 60c | 314.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3188…870bbacked No | 6c | 299.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…90e5backed No | 7c | 283.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 9c | 282.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.23 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 7c | 205.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 10c | 163.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 55c | 112.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.24 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 18c | 59.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 59c | 58.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.38per pick | 45cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…9382backed No | 57c | 55.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 39.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…378bbacked No | 55c | 27.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…04f1backed No | 54c | 22.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…1bedbacked No | 54c | 18.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon reach $260 in April?this page
- Will Amazon dip to $168 in April?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $192 in April?No won
- Will Amazon dip to $200 in April?No won
- Will Amazon reach $224 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $232 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $244 in April?Yes won
- Will Amazon reach $276 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.