College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f5e6388e206164cd6f87c7cc79600e12640a92eff73fb70990faf993889d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof James Madison, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed James Madison | 53c | 129,409$68,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68,435.34 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Marshall | 47c | 60,810$28,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,229.11 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Marshall | 47c | 25,200$11,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,355 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall | 47c | 15,356$7,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,133.84 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Marshall | 49c | 15,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,699.99 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marshall | 47c | 10,080$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,342.4 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed James Madison | 51c | 8,031$4,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,095.77 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Marshall | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Marshall | 48c | 4,500$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Marshall | 49c | 2,680$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.8 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked James Madison | 51c | 2,226$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.36 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Marshall | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marshall | 47c | 745$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…0d78backed James Madison | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf17b…8a1dbacked Marshall | 50c | 334$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…ff23backed James Madison | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marshall | 48c | 282.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked James Madison | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed James Madison | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Marshall | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed James Madison | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked James Madison | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…be85backed James Madison | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Marshall | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed James Madison | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Marshall | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed James Madison | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked James Madison | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…c8ddbacked James Madison | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -72%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…8affbacked James Madison | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed James Madison | 52c | 30.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Marshall | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Marshall | 48c | 27.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Marshall | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-13.5)this page
- James Madison vs. MarshallJames Madison won
- James Madison vs. Marshall: O/U 54.5Over won
- O/U 55.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.