College Football · resolved market
James Madison vs. Marshall
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaccfb4314ef6b71771ec5f3ba4817935bb830511ff4f26ef546e0ac69d7eedef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- James Madisonof James Madison, Marshall
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,167,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,482,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,167,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Marshall | 15c | 300,000$45,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,000 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Marshall | 15c | 40,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Marshall | 16c | 31,060$4,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,980.12 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Marshall | 15c | 29,660$4,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,586 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Marshall | 14c | 28,881$4,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,013.96 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Marshall | 17c | 26,827$4,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560.59 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Marshall | 16c | 26,000$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Marshall | 16c | 26,000$4,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,060 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Marshall | 16c | 19,520$3,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,123.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall | 16c | 17,020$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.2 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Marshall | 15c | 15,067$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.44 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…dbaabacked Marshall | 11c | 15,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Marshall | 20c | 12,672$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.42 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Marshall | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Marshall | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf7…9189backed Marshall | 16c | 7,848$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Marshall | 17c | 6,493$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.27 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Marshall | 18c | 6,087$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.64 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Marshall | 16c | 5,887$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.98 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Marshall | 15c | 5,350$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Marshall | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Marshall | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Marshall | 16c | 4,712$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.61 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Marshall | 16c | 4,500$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Marshall | 16c | 4,400$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Marshall | 16c | 3,638$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.74 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Marshall | 14c | 3,593$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.89 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Marshall | 15c | 3,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Marshall | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Marshall | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marshall | 19c | 2,924$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.65 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Marshall | 19c | 2,653$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.95 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Marshall | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Marshall | 17c | 2,235$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Marshall | 18c | 1,800$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Marshall | 13c | 1,770$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.06 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Marshall | 11c | 1,480$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.82 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Marshall | 18c | 1,392$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.66 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Marshall | 16c | 1,246$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.39 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Marshall | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Marshall | 12c | 1,085$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Marshall | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Marshall | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Marshall | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Marshall | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Marshall | 19c | 642.1$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Marshall | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Marshall | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Marshall | 2c | 540.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Marshall | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Marshall | 18c | 488$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Marshall | 16c | 419.38$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Marshall | 18c | 307$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Marshall | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Marshall | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Marshall | 10c | 245.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Marshall | 10c | 231.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd87…dd8bbacked Marshall | 14c | 209.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Marshall | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd5…1306backed Marshall | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Marshall | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e5…d41fbacked Marshall | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Marshall | 18c | 198$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Marshall | 12c | 155.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Marshall | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Marshall | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Marshall | 19c | 125.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Marshall | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Marshall | 18c | 110.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Marshall | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Marshall | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Marshall | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Marshall | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Marshall | 17c | 60.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Marshall | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d3…7314backed James Madison | 77c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison vs. Marshallthis page
- James Madison vs. Marshall: O/U 54.5Over won
- O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: James Madison (-13.5)Marshall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.