Earnings · resolved market
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd916f90be39f826532453793016424ca7c8dab119239b5596883eb42d8fa1407
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 1c | 20,064$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…b9f9backed No | 36c | 1,815$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483c…8c30backed No | 36c | 1,791$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…c8efbacked No | 36c | 1,778$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…0b97backed No | 36c | 1,645$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…f0f4backed Yes | 64c | 1,025$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…4d5abacked Yes | 64c | 1,020$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec1…2ee9backed Yes | 64c | 1,009$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…3c2ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,006$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…52d7backed Yes | 64c | 1,005$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…2516backed Yes | 64c | 1,003$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…6890backed Yes | 64c | 961$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 2c | 608.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 64c | 239.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 36c | 152.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…e8b4backed No | 35c | 139.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 39c | 89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 66c | 62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…9f68backed Yes | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570e…ba89backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…8b5abacked Yes | 80c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed No | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…a66dbacked Yes | 63c | 32.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…3015backed Yes | 65c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.