MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9263dbf723fd4a0d0c7c96b8789bccc0b1393b175c3e855768fd541bcd6ec0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,970 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 489$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.89 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 290$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Tampa Bay Rays | 59c | 247$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 128$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 104.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 97.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Tampa Bay Rays | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2d…b291backed Tampa Bay Rays | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.