Tennis · resolved market
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd982804952e0995fccb17f09c85a829efb50808332667cd8bf3ffd39c8b1cdcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Fucsovics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Fucsovics | 49c | 20,644$10,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,061.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nakashima | 51c | 6,706$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 51c | 5,942$3,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,914.39 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nakashima | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nakashima | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Nakashima | 55c | 1,501$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.87 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 51c | 1,397$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.8 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Nakashima | 65c | 1,216$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Nakashima | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Nakashima | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nakashima | 72c | 324.24$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Nakashima | 53c | 308.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Nakashima | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Fucsovics | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Fucsovics | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nakashima | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Fucsovics | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Nakashima | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Nakashima | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Nakashima | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Fucsovics | 47c | 95.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fucsovics | 39c | 76.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Nakashima | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…e758backed Fucsovics | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nakashima | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Nakashima | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Nakashima | 52c | 30.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Nakashima | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Nakashima | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Nakashima | 74c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.