MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99d17530ed30c63e1ea218bf425b93ca7eac730798a290e7ab88600a03126eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 53c | 6,538$3,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,072.86 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 6,533$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070.51 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 1,325$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.4 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.98 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 50c | 822.93$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.08 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 51c | 592.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 46c | 294.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.65 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Under | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…d3fdbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Under | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…b9acbacked Under | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Reds vs. CardinalsReds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.