Lol · resolved market
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a57260f150814d67f5100d59f0e8f18d1a921024c17548c2f0d02414a3e3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Karmine Corp Blueof Karmine Corp Blue, Verdant
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…c67ebacked Verdant | 27c | 4,497$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.3 | 677 | 60.4%409 W · 268 L | +42.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 885 | 44.3%392 W · 493 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked Karmine Corp Blue | 70c | 715$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Verdant | 41c | 656.52$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.5 | 508 | 45.3%230 W · 278 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Verdant | 19c | 415.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 1,270 | 57%724 W · 546 L | +45.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…749bbacked Verdant | 15c | 266$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 689 | 15.2%105 W · 584 L | -31.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 963 | 48.7%469 W · 494 L | +28.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…76bcbacked Verdant | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Karmine Corp Blue | 69c | 237.97$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 1,912 | 37.1%709 W · 1,203 L | -115.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Karmine Corp Blue | 55c | 191.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e4c2backed Karmine Corp Blue | 65c | 183.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Verdant | 28c | 130.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 679 | 57.9%393 W · 286 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…612abacked Verdant | 31c | 113.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 440 | 46.4%204 W · 236 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…8553backed Verdant | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 57%403 W · 304 L | +35.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd16b…36c0backed Karmine Corp Blue | 64c | 69.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 481 | 54.3%261 W · 220 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Verdant | 24c | 67.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,616 | 43.8%708 W · 908 L | -74.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Verdant | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,608 | 17.5%282 W · 1,326 L | -245.3wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Verdant | 30c | 64.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae0…8661backed Karmine Corp Blue | 70c | 56.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 359 | 43.5%156 W · 203 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Verdant | 37c | 45.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 848 | 40.8%346 W · 502 L | -39.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…6483backed Karmine Corp Blue | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 269 | 58%156 W · 113 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Karmine Corp Blue | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,910 | 38.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L | -120.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…fd6bbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 73c | 27.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Karmine Corp Blue | 80c | 26.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 744 | 62.2%463 W · 281 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…7d49backed Karmine Corp Blue | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Karmine Corp Blue | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…3594backed Karmine Corp Blue | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.