Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b4f9369643384b2d5fd165b91d3db7bece867eed1a066de8d164490aaf67d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 29c | 2,113$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.07 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 67c | 1,400$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…b74dbacked Up | 24c | 1,342$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 29c | 910.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.92 | 310 | 34.8%108 W · 202 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Down | 66c | 761.59$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 37c | 541.05$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.09 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 30c | 448.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.14 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Up | 32c | 306.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…2fc3backed Up | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…25c7backed Down | 43c | 218.7$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 64c | 207.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked Up | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Down | 6c | 186$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 51c | 174.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.55 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…7c50backed Down | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 26c | 121.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 40c | 115.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Down | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 37c | 82.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9a…8d51backed Up | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Up | 54c | 55.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…4fd4backed Up | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Down | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…11ccbacked Down | 74c | 34.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Down | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Down | 48c | 28.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…47b1backed Up | 78c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Down | 80c | 23.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.