Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs strongboys (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9b7f104f1130fb9ae0643ff3c06d9cca628dbbf12983c81c97fdd45f8a06f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Valinor, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06c0…e618backed strongboys | 74c | 11,618$8,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,020.56 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Valinor | 26c | 11,371$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Valinor | 0c | 4,748$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Valinor | 1c | 3,783$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed Valinor | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed strongboys | 69c | 722.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Valinor | 16c | 533.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Valinor | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed strongboys | 80c | 270$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 52 | 80.8%42 W · 10 L | +8.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…71f8backed Valinor | 26c | 208.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Valinor | 13c | 207.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Valinor | 18c | 138$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff49…2f07backed Valinor | 19c | 124.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked strongboys | 72c | 113.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Valinor | 34c | 101.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Valinor | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed strongboys | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Valinor | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Valinor | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Valinor | 27c | 87.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Valinor | 17c | 84.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Valinor | 37c | 81.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Valinor | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…aa29backed strongboys | 69c | 65.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed Valinor | 27c | 43.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…3c94backed strongboys | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed strongboys | 74c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed strongboys | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…16c8backed strongboys | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b92…3036backed strongboys | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7d0bbacked strongboys | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs strongboys (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Valinor vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.