South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f7763ba6c9b4642b6361b48c11efe0f948b3f168520c7d1d1a3a5fecc5592a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,269 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 10,781$7,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 27c | 8,375$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,261.96 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 5,135$3,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 30c | 4,210$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.07 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 27c | 1,707$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.78 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 995.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…42eabacked Over | 43c | 940.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 762.95$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.46 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 577.51$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.98 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 30c | 536.67$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 70c | 398.93$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 28c | 318$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 71c | 317.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 71c | 313.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 46c | 289.01$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 28c | 169.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 74c | 169.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 70c | 141.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe949…77e2backed Under | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 43c | 119.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Under | 68c | 119$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 74c | 108.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Over | 23c | 95.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 90.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 73c | 75.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 73.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 27c | 72.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 73c | 71.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 36c | 58.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 30c | 58.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Over | 40c | 57.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 40c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 71c | 42.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Under | 71c | 39.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 55c | 34.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 64c | 30.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Under | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 72c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Under | 67c | 25.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 71c | 23.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Under | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d88…3effbacked Under | 72c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Tigre (-2.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CA Tigre won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)CA Tigre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.