MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda041ec8f359c9214d78fa167ad1d2109927832aaaf349ae22f3455bd4ed471a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,119 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 52c | 346.54$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.34 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago White Sox | 12c | 202.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked San Diego Padres | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 61.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49f…2661backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 41.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.