Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Elvina Kalieva vs Elise Mertens
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda3900229fb42c049065afd1b305fd5822b747eb1cf05716583a98b6a2f5df47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Elise Mertensof Elvina Kalieva, Elise Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,005 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Elvina Kalieva | 0c | 3,411$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Elvina Kalieva | 3c | 2,779$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.93 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 2,357$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.48 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…6672backed Elvina Kalieva | 6c | 744.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 155 | 12.9%20 W · 135 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Elvina Kalieva | 11c | 730.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 273 | 31.5%86 W · 187 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Elvina Kalieva | 18c | 677.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 734 | 53%389 W · 345 L | +36.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Elvina Kalieva | 15c | 617.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.09 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Elvina Kalieva | 10c | 465$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Elvina Kalieva | 12c | 460$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Elvina Kalieva | 17c | 424$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Elvina Kalieva | 15c | 320$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Elvina Kalieva | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 871 | 35.4%308 W · 563 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Elvina Kalieva | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 201.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Elvina Kalieva | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…0b60backed Elvina Kalieva | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 158.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 100.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 433 | 53.6%232 W · 201 L | +32.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38df…4609backed Elvina Kalieva | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Elvina Kalieva | 14c | 89.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Elvina Kalieva | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open: Elvina Kalieva vs Elise Mertensthis page
- Kalieva vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Kalieva vs MertensMertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.