Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4af79922ae0c8210a2c2510d858caaab7bb8697426b732c15207c893a9597a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 11c | 2,002$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 7c | 1,734$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.04 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 15c | 1,115$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 5c | 975$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…a357backed Yes | 13c | 940$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 18c | 842$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…c328backed Yes | 15c | 729.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 15c | 650$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 16c | 625.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…c160backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 8c | 395$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…6ac0backed Yes | 12c | 287.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 9c | 136.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d86…13babacked Yes | 8c | 134$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 132$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…2256backed Yes | 20c | 101.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcf…8762backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb321…5bc3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.