Chess · resolved market
Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d1fae516f68d36f7cec110d353d6dd4315212bc9610e4e45ef63fd747cdd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 70c | 2,027$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 29c | 1,656$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…d1b2backed No | 30c | 1,499$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 66c | 1,496$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.07 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,270$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +277.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed No | 13c | 1,122$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 78c | 1,104$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 67c | 1,060$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 33c | 995$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 70c | 882.16$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 66c | 799.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 68c | 675.46$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 28c | 571.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 72c | 449.18$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked No | 27c | 380$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d68…6af4backed No | 12c | 335.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 10c | 289.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked No | 30c | 250.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 207.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 31c | 202.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 74c | 194.14$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…9a20backed Yes | 76c | 170.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 80c | 137.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 70c | 122.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6310backed Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 31c | 105.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…5cc2backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479b…d55bbacked No | 31c | 91.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed No | 30c | 57.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…733fbacked Yes | 69c | 40.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…2f70backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…9695backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…3d85backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.