Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a132728ab36788f96a932e29c5fe6dc525a5052aa0419243b467d92f5ab307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,248$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 17c | 1,218$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…75bcbacked No | 80c | 1,028$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 8c | 808.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…c328backed Yes | 18c | 685$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 11c | 636.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 13c | 616.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b5…d48cbacked Yes | 16c | 506.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 18c | 480.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 16c | 419.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…b816backed Yes | 19c | 389.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 22c | 364.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 239.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…b177backed Yes | 18c | 208.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3795…4c73backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 19c | 148$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked Yes | 19c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 123$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 12c | 119.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 23c | 115.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 76c | 107.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7e…a357backed Yes | 19c | 104.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 16c | 100.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…6ac0backed Yes | 15c | 97.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked No | 78c | 79.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…c3b5backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 16c | 68.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…eda6backed Yes | 19c | 58.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 80c | 14.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 10 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 10 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.