Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda58acb48a037ee4b5d560e1bf4d59cd99f061fa01bf34cc92e8235d3b15999b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Shpilit, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,946
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Team Lynx | 76c | 571.81$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.68 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Team Lynx | 69c | 389.46$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Team Lynx | 68c | 273.22$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Shpilit | 28c | 264.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 253.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Shpilit | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Shpilit | 35c | 200.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Team Lynx | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Team Shpilit | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Shpilit | 52c | 180.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 54c | 168.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Team Shpilit | 40c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Shpilit | 43c | 146.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 71c | 102.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Lynx | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Team Shpilit | 41c | 73.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…fa4bbacked Team Shpilit | 30c | 52.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Shpilit | 43c | 50.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Shpilit | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 75c | 47.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Team Shpilit | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Shpilit | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Team Lynx | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.