Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756bd6715b44af413cef86dbb2746f15133cc685400630ff646a29c6f0306a88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Shpilit, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,635 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Team Shpilit | 17c | 2,227$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Lynx | 77c | 1,581$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.96 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Team Shpilit | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Shpilit | 32c | 617$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 72c | 612.8$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Shpilit | 11c | 534.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…4f54backed Team Shpilit | 23c | 342.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Shpilit | 33c | 328$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 79c | 321.33$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 2,835 | 43.6%1,237 W · 1,598 L | -39.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Team Lynx | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Shpilit | 33c | 295.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 972 | 42.8%416 W · 556 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Shpilit | 17c | 255.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Team Lynx | 68c | 201.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 158.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed Team Lynx | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 78c | 146.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Lynx | 68c | 143$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 714 | 42.6%304 W · 410 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…a144backed Team Lynx | 76c | 127.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…3302backed Team Shpilit | 23c | 115.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Shpilit | 18c | 112.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f18…7818backed Team Shpilit | 17c | 108.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…90a9backed Team Shpilit | 18c | 108.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Shpilit | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 344 | 45.6%157 W · 187 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…be40backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 88.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…149bbacked Team Lynx | 79c | 69.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed Team Shpilit | 35c | 61.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Team Lynx | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Team Shpilit | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Shpilit | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Lynx | 68c | 43.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 301 | 55.5%167 W · 134 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…1290backed Team Lynx | 68c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Team Lynx | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed Team Lynx | 79c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx (BO3) - CCT Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Shpilit vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.